In the News

Red Lobster has abruptly closed about 100 of its roughly 700 restaurants and is auctioning off equipment from many of these sites. The closures come amid reports that the chain is considering filing for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection. TAGeX Brands, a restaurant industry liquidator, announced it is conducting a large-scale auction of equipment from over 50 Red Lobster locations, with the first auctions ending soon. The closures and financial struggles have surprised employees and patrons alike. Factors contributing to Red Lobster’s difficulties include the pandemic, high interest rates, labor costs, and an unsuccessful all-you-can-eat shrimp promotion. The chain has been seeking a buyer to avoid bankruptcy, but its largest investor, Thai Union, has also expressed intentions to sell its stake due to sustained financial losses.
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The S&P Corelogic Case-Shiller Index revealed a robust 6.4% annual increase in single-family house prices in the United States in February, surpassing January’s record-high growth. All cities in the index reported annual price growth, with San Diego experiencing the largest increase for the second consecutive month. Despite economic uncertainty, fueled by inflation concerns and rising mortgage rates, housing prices continue to soar, reaching all-time highs in cities like San Diego, Los Angeles, New York, and Washington, D.C. However, this persistent growth, coupled with limited supply and higher mortgage rates, is exacerbating housing affordability issues, prompting more prospective buyers to opt for renting over buying.
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The article reports that BH Kolter is set to acquire a Naples condo complex for $100 million. The property, known as the Mangrove Bay Condominiums, consists of 53 units and spans over 9 acres. The acquisition represents BH Kolter’s continued expansion in the Florida real estate market. The deal underscores the robust demand for luxury residential properties in desirable locations like Naples.
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Blackstone has agreed to acquire Apartment Income REIT (AIR Communities) for approximately $10 billion, marking its largest multifamily transaction to date. The deal, valued at $39.12 per share, reflects Blackstone’s renewed interest in the property market following a pause in investments in 2023 due to increased interest rates. The acquisition aligns with Blackstone’s strategy to capitalize on prime multifamily markets and signals a potential uptick in commercial real estate activity in 2024 amidst stabilized interest rates.
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Bank of America, the largest tenant at Fifth Third Center in Charlotte, plans to vacate all 13 floors it leases before its lease expires in July 2025, indicating a trend of financial companies scaling back on real estate in Charlotte. The bank cited a preference for owning office space rather than leasing as a reason for the move. Cousins Properties, the landlord, intends to renovate the space to attract new tenants amidst a broader trend of consolidating office space among Charlotte’s major employers. This move by Bank of America aligns with its broader strategy of refining its real estate portfolio, including closing underperforming branches and expanding into new markets.

A bidding war for Macy’s, concurrent with the retailer’s plan to close 150 stores, has significant implications for shopping mall owners and the loans financing these centers. While a buyout could be beneficial with a financially strong new owner, closures may spell trouble for malls and lenders. Macy’s anchors numerous malls, totaling over 100 million square feet, with about $24 billion in loans linked to these properties. The potential closure of Macy’s stores could lead to reduced foot traffic, lower sales for neighboring tenants, and decreased revenue for landlords. Weaker-performing malls are likely targets for closures, exacerbating their decline. Co-tenancy clauses triggered by anchor store closures could affect inline tenants, potentially leading to reduced rents or concessions. Overall, these developments indicate possible repercussions for mall viability and associated loans.

The U.S. economy defied predictions of a recession in 2023, closing the year with a robust 3.3% annualized growth in the fourth quarter, as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. The diverse growth was spread across consumer spending, business investments, trade, and government spending. A “Goldilocks scenario” was observed, with all major GDP components growing within a 1.5% to 4% range. Concerns about the sustainability of consumer spending arise due to increased reliance on credit cards, rising delinquencies, and a low personal savings rate, suggesting a potential economic slowdown.

Fitch Ratings anticipates a significant deterioration in the prospects for U.S. commercial real estate loan refinancing in 2024, leading to an increase in commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) delinquency rates across major property sectors. The overall U.S. CMBS delinquency rate is projected to rise from 2.25% in November 2023 to 4.5% in 2024 and 4.9% in 2025, driven by factors such as maturity defaults, higher interest rates, tighter access to capital, and fewer special servicing resolutions. The office delinquency rate is expected to more than double by 2025 due to hybrid work policies, while retail, hotel, and multifamily loan delinquency rates are also forecasted to increase. Additionally, higher interest rates in 2023 led to a trend of shorter-term, five-year fixed-rate loans in the commercial real estate securitization market. Furthermore, Wells Fargo’s recent non-recoverability determinations for CMBS deal JPMCC 2013-C16 highlight a potential shift in servicer decisions based on deal-level parameters, impacting interest payments for bondholders but potentially offering a future upside through property liquidations.

Miami Worldcenter, a $6 billion, 27-acre mixed-use development, has faced challenges over the years, including delays due to the Great Recession and the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic. The project, the second-largest of its kind in the United States, aims to reshape Miami’s urban core by focusing on pedestrian-friendly spaces and creating a walkable neighborhood. Despite setbacks, the development is nearing completion, with over 90% of its 300,000 square feet of retail space leased. The project includes residential units, offices, public green areas, and a variety of amenities, contributing to Miami’s status as a growing global city.

U.S. commercial real estate sales prices have experienced a significant decline as the number of transactions hit near-pandemic lows, according to a CoStar Group analysis for November. The findings indicate that November’s transaction volume was the second-lowest since the depths of the pandemic lockdowns, with a 38.6% drop in sales, amounting to a $3.6 billion reduction from the prior month. The value-weighted U.S. Composite Index, reflecting larger property sales common in major cities, fell by 1.1% in November, marking the third consecutive monthly decline. Investment-grade property fundamentals have worsened in the past 12 months, with a negative contribution and a notable increase in the completion of new space.

In November, U.S. companies announced a total of 45,510 job cuts, marking a 24% increase from the previous month. Despite being 41% lower than the same period the previous year, the year-to-date job cuts in 2023 were more than double the figure for the first 11 months of 2022, totaling 686,860. The technology industry led in announced job cuts for the year, with 163,562, including 5,049 in November. Additionally, the House Energy and Commerce Committee advanced a bill to address the shortage of electrical distribution transformers, while jobless claims increased by 1,000 to 220,000 for the week ending December 2, indicating a tightening job market.

Holiday gift returns have become a significant driver for the third-party logistics industry, with these providers representing nearly 31% of all industrial leases of 100,000 square feet or more in the first three quarters of the year. In the past four years, third-party logistics providers, many of which provide reverse logistics services, have leased more than 100 million square feet of bulk warehouse space annually, according to CBRE.

The growth in e-commerce, expected to account for over 30% of sales by 2030, contributes to the increasing demand for reverse logistics services and the associated real estate. Additionally, some retailers are adopting strategies such as charging return fees and implementing shorter return windows to mitigate excessive returns, with technology and strategic approaches seen as opportunities to turn returns into a revenue-generating aspect of retail.

Multifamily rent growth experienced a significant acceleration in 2021 and early 2022, leading to concerns about affordability and calls for rent control. However, since late 2022, the growth has slowed, and in some major markets, rents have even declined. On a national level, the average asking multifamily rent is only $65 higher than it would have been with pre-pandemic growth rates. Markets in Florida, particularly Palm Beach, show the largest positive differences, with rents significantly higher than projected. In contrast, several large coastal California markets, including San Francisco, San Jose, and East Bay, have lower rents than anticipated. The variations are more pronounced between different property types, with four- and five-star properties experiencing the greatest absolute differences. Miami and Orange County have notably higher rents for high-end properties, while San Francisco’s most expensive units are cheaper. Lower-priced one- and two-star properties generally have marginal increases, with some renter households paying slightly less than anticipated in a few markets. Bay Area markets stand out for lower rents in one- and two-star properties compared to pre-pandemic projections, while Palm Beach has higher rents in this category.

After nearly two years of delays, El Salvador’s Bitcoin Volcano Bond has received regulatory approval from the Digital Assets Commission (CNAD) and is expected to be issued in the first quarter of 2024. The bond, named after a plan to use geothermal energy from a volcano for Bitcoin mining, was initially announced by President Nayib Bukele in 2021 after El Salvador adopted Bitcoin as legal tender. The bond’s debut in early 2022 was postponed and faced multiple delays before El Salvador’s congress passed a law in January, creating a legal framework for the bond. The bond could help the nation avoid defaulting on its debt, although the International Monetary Fund has urged El Salvador to eliminate Bitcoin as a legal currency. The funds raised by the Volcano Bond are intended for the creation of a “Bitcoin city” and investments in Bitcoin itself, aligning with El Salvador’s broader embrace of cryptocurrency.

In November, the number of distressed office properties backed by commercial mortgage-backed securities loans increased by 1.1%, reaching a total of 762 buildings, with a 30% vacancy rate. The distress level may improve as some properties recently received loan modifications. Notable among these is a portfolio of nearly 150 properties in Pennsylvania, securing a $1.27 billion loan, set to be removed from special servicing after a two-year loan extension by Workspace Property Trust. In downtown Philadelphia, the servicer deemed a $126 million loan on the Wanamaker Building nonrecoverable, with an updated appraised value 71.8% below the 2018 value.

Additionally, final offers are being reviewed for the Countryside Mall in Clearwater, Florida, which faced credit rating downgrades, leading to potential losses in a CMBS deal. The 1.4 million-square-foot mall, managed by special servicer Midland Loan Services, was transferred to special servicing in June 2020. JLL is overseeing leasing and management, and while the mall’s value has risen, a pending transaction is under review for approval.

StateServ, a national provider of durable medical equipment, has secured a five-year lease for a 14,100 square feet space at the Alico Business Park in Fort Myers, Florida. This expansion is part of the company’s operations in 14 states, with a total of 50 distribution centers. The distribution center at 16311 Domestic Ave., built in 2020 and spanning 13.28 acres, is also home to other tenants such as Clevertech and retailer The Coldest Water. The Alico Business Park, comprising four industrial properties totaling 174,600 square feet, hosts a diverse range of tenants including United Way of Lee County and Matter Brothers Furniture. The lease deal was facilitated by Shawn Stoneburner of Cushman & Wakefield representing the owner, and Jeffrey Bucker of Lee & Associates representing StateServ.

Financial centers around the world are grappling with uneven recovery in the hotel industry. These centers rely heavily on corporate travel, and the closure of offices in 2020 disrupted hotel occupancy. Even though people are back in offices, downtown hotel occupancy in major financial hubs like New York and Tokyo is still below pre-2019 levels. Factors like new hotels and the slow return to offices are contributing to this. While some cities like Dubai are bouncing back, challenges in corporate travel demand and economic issues in certain countries may slow down the overall hotel recovery.

In response to the housing needs of the unhoused, refugees, and migrants, over 16,000 hotel rooms in New York City have been repurposed, with 140 hotels no longer available for travelers as of October. Various city and county authorities have secured these accommodations through long-term leases, reducing future hotel room supply. The impact is particularly noticeable in different market segments, with a concentration of projects in major areas like midtown, Queens/Brooklyn, and JFK/Jamaica. The transformation of these hotels, most of which were midscale or economy properties, may have a lasting effect on New York City’s hotel performance, potentially leading to higher average daily rates in the future. Despite ongoing construction, the city’s supply pipeline for new hotels is expected to be limited due to recent zoning and development regulations.

Amazon has vacated over 14 million square feet of distribution space in the U.S. in the past 16 months, constituting about 3% of its U.S. logistics footprint. Most closures occurred in the latter half of 2022 as Amazon focused on shutting down older, less efficient facilities. The company has recently increased its sublease offerings, with the unique aspect being that more of these involve opportunities through 2030 and beyond in larger, newly built distribution properties. Despite these closures, Amazon’s total U.S. logistics square footage appears to remain stable in 2023, with new leases offsetting the volume of closures.

Consumer sentiment in the U.S. declined for the fourth consecutive month, with the University of Michigan’s sentiment index dropping to 60.4 in November, down from 63.8 in October. Concerns about high interest rates, inflation, and global political unrest contributed to the decline, particularly affecting lower-income and younger consumers. Despite retailers adding 3% more jobs in October compared to the previous year in anticipation of the holiday season, transportation and warehousing jobs fell by 27%. Additionally, while initial claims for unemployment insurance remained low at 217,000 for the week ending Nov. 4, continuing claims increased for the seventh consecutive week, suggesting challenges in finding new employment for some individuals.

Fort Myers, in Southwest Florida, has seen significant activity in new industrial development with 3.9 million square feet currently under construction, following the completion of 1.4 million square feet. However, recent completions have surpassed tenant move-ins, leading to a slight increase in vacancy rates to 2.4%, marking the first time the vacancy rate has averaged over 2% in a year. It’s projected that the vacancy rate will continue to rise, potentially peaking at around 6% by the end of 2024. Despite this increase, Fort Myers remains a desirable industrial market with strong tenant interest, particularly for spaces under 50,000 square feet. Vacancy is expected to normalize to 2% to 3% in the long term.

54-Page Guide Outlines Federal Resources Available to Developers and Landlords By Parimal M. Rohit, CoStar News Amid a housing shortage in U.S. cities, various initiatives are looking to convert underused office spaces in central business districts into residential...

Hotels are increasingly offering a range of amenities and services to pamper pet owners and their pet companions. These services go beyond the traditional water bowls and plush beds, with offerings such as nutritious, fresh dog food in hotel restaurants, “Yappy” hours, play areas, dog mini poolside cabanas, and even doggie turn-down service. Some hotels have specific pet packages, including access to telehealth appointments for pets and dedicated pet concierges, catering to both traditional and non-typical emotional support animals and exotic pets. These pet-friendly amenities aim to enhance the guest experience for pet owners and their beloved animals while contributing to a more comfortable environment for all guests.